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the euro last week, the European currencies on behalf of the European debt crisis as eased, and there rising trend. The dollar index in a number of bearish U.S. economic data but falling under the influence, although the Beige Book said U.S. economic recovery is still optimistic, however, released last week, the latest from the economy (310358, fund it) data, do not seem to support its point of view. The world of high commodity prices boosted to some extent still commodity money, but Australia continued to make the flood of Australian pressure. In addition, China announced on Friday once again raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, the currency may limit the risk of later movements.
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Euro Rebate: Germany's embarrassing, Wall Street is very tangled love-hate QE2 debut in 2010 real exchange rate rose 4.72% in Europe concerns motivated the Chinese yuan-denominated bonds purchased in U.S. dollars [RMB premium] [Quote Center]
technical graphics, the dollar index was 81.5 last week, finally turning down on the red, the see below support at the previous rising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to 77.843, while the overhead resistance is seen in 100-day moving average of 79.407, given the debt crisis gradually subsided in Europe, is expected to remain within the United States refers to the short-term shocks trend.
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major currencies transactions:
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EUR / USD: High: 1.3456 Low: 1.3311 Close price: 1.3375
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euro rose last week, a total of nearly 500 points, or 3.9%, the highest since March 2009 has been the best weekly performance, and full recovery of the ground lost the previous week. In short, make up the euro is the main factor of this round of the European debt crisis eased to some extent. Prior to the euro has been the impact of the debt crisis, from the previous high of 1.4281 all the way down, the minimum was below the 1.29 line. Last week the euro zone have been second-line auction of state bonds from the auction results, both aspects of Portugal or Spain and Italy are more optimistic, which to some extent, outside the euro area to dispel most doubts about the financial difficulties, ease had been troubled by the debt crisis for the euro bond market pressure. On Thursday, the ECB announced that remain unchanged interest rates of 1%, but after the meeting, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said euro zone inflation risks may be given up, if necessary, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to maintain price stability. In spite of these remarks has earned the market by surprise, because after the market had expected the ECB to adopt a more moderate stance, in the fourth quarter will not raise interest rates before. We also understand that the euro area has been included in China and Japan, some countries, including the support of leaders of China and Japan, said it had purchased a second-tier European countries in bonds, the future will continue to buy, helping the euro zone ride out the storm, which to some extent, support the formation of the euro. Today, the euro group will convene to discuss the debt crisis of the mid-European solutions and financial stability in Europe will expand the organization (EFSF) the scale of the problem, if the meeting results in line with market expectations, then the euro may still continue in the next week's gains.
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graphics from a technical point of view, the euro hit $ 1.3456 at present, though short one-month high of 1.34 but is now back below the shock, and its rise above the resistance seen in the previous The Fibonacci 50% retracement of 1.3461, and 1.35 line if they can form an effective break on this point, the channel will open up the euro. See below support at 61.8% retracement of 1.3268 and 1.3069 where the 200 day moving average, is expected to market outlook, the euro rose last week after experiencing the short term may continue for some time the shock movements.
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AUD / USD: High: 0.9993 Low: 0.9852 Close price: 0.9894
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Australian dollar fell earlier this year and this year Queensland in Australia is closely related to floods. This once-rare 50-year floods, seriously affect the Australian economy, making the most of mine off the area, we know that Australia's economy is a typical export-oriented, once the export of minerals and crops affected, then Australia This year's economic growth will suffer a great test. It is reported that the Queensland rains will appear in the near future, which undoubtedly will add to Australia's disaster, the recent trend is not so optimistic about the Australian dollar is also reasonable. In addition, China's central bank announced on Friday, January 20 this year from raising the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, although earlier this year, China is widely expected that further tightening of monetary policy actions, but this increased storage potential rate is still beyond many people's expectations, we know, China has been trading in Australia plays a very important position, once the tightening of monetary policy in China, then the Australian dollar will make imports less pressure. It is expected that afternoon, and the Canadian dollar as a commodity currencies like the Australian dollar will remain under pressure.
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graphics from a technical point of view, the Australian dollar has fallen below the 0.99 line, below the support to see at the previous rising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9808, if an effective break on this point, the Australian dollar to run down the target line position is seen in 0.97, above the resistance is a look at the parity level against the dollar, market outlook is expected in the case of floods is not yet over, the Australian dollar down against the U.S. dollar will be the main shock.
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GBP / USD: High: 1.5888 Low: 1.5813 Close price: 1.5860
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the UK due to the recent economic data has its own improvement, combined with market sentiment picked up, so there was a continuous rise in sterling on Friday, the United Kingdom announced in December producer prices than expected, showing that UK inflation has further intensified the trend rate of inflation from the current to the UK Look beyond the Bank of England's 2% target by one percentage point at most, making the market more and more people believe that the UK inflation has been higher than target, will lead the British authorities to take measures to promote, and thus support the pound a certain . In addition, the pound also benefited from the rise in the market for the concerns of European debt crisis has improved this week, but the long term, final solution to the debt crisis in Europe is not easy, as Britain can not stay out of this crisis, so outlook is expected to pound the trend will still be a drag to some extent.
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graphics from a technical point of view, the euro is currently located at the previous high point of resistance around 1.59, below which support is to see where the 55-day moving average and 100 day MA 1.5744 of 1.5723, in view of pounds more than a week since the emergence of more substantial gains, is expected to pound the short term will remain high and volatile in the vicinity of 1.58.
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USD / CAD: High: 0.9976 Low: 0.9882 Close price: 0.9894
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slightly Friday the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar down, China announced on Friday to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, to a certain extent, suppressed the formation of the Canadian dollar, but as the market debt crisis in Europe to help ease the concerns of the Canadian dollar recovered earlier losses. Some heavily indebted euro zone countries have successfully auctioned bonds, second, to quell concerns about the credit crisis, so that the risk of the overall market sentiment and not because of raising the reserve rate affected significantly, on the contrary, the North American stock markets and oil prices provided strong support for the Canadian dollar. However, the increase of the standard rate of deposit, suggesting that the domestic inflation situation is still very serious, this may also introduce a series of measures to curb inflation, therefore, high-risk commodity currencies as the Canadian dollar will inevitably affected.
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technical graphics point of view, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar is still in the early downstream channel, the bottom support to see at the previous low of 0.9843, while resistance is at parity above level, in the current international commodity prices are generally high, it is expected the Canadian dollar will continue to the next level in the near parity against the U.S. dollar remain the main trend shocks.
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Gold: High: 1377.85 Low: 1354.99 Close Price: 1361.35
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appeared on Friday gold fell nearly 1%. We know that the dollar index continued to fall last week, the same goods as a hedge the price of gold's safe-haven buying as the market fell reduction. After some time the focus of the European market debt crisis and the Korean Peninsula in the last week there were varying degrees of ease, making the safe-haven appeal of gold has diminished. In addition, China announced to raise the deposit reserve ratio to curb inflation, but also to some extent, to suppress gold prices.
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technical graphics point of view, gold has now come to a half-month low of $ 1,360, below the 100 day moving average support to see where the $ 1,348, while resistance is at the top 55-day moving average $ 1,381, is expected to forward, downward trend in gold will be the main shock.
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